LIBERMAN KILLS NETANYAHU'S COALITION GOVERNMENT.

      The 2019 Israeli election looked like a win for Netanyahu, but their electoral system is flawed. Netanyahu's Likud Party won 35 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, but he's required to have 61 seats to form a coalition. The coalition was supposed to include 16 seats from ultra-Orthodox parties, 5 from Avidor Liberman's Yisrael Beitinu Party, with the remainder from other small parties like Kulanu (which may merge with Likud when new elections are held on September 17, 2019). Liberman withdrew from the coalition for the second time over 2 issues: he wants the 30,000 ultra-Orthodox Jews in yeshivas to serve in the military and he wants Hamas wiped out. On the matrix below the axis term is AVIGDOR. At one skip less is LIBERMAN. At skip +1 is NETANYAHU. If Netanyahu can't hold on to power he may be prosecuted for corruption. TO PROSECUTE touches his name. ARMY is at the same skip as AVIGDOR. WAR is in the open text. Sharing a letter lamed with WAR is TO STOP.

       What are we to make of WAR in the open text sharing a letter lamed with TO STOP? Recently Hamas fired over 700 rockets into Israel over a weekend. NETANYAHU responded in the same old way - he called in the Israeli Air Force, bombed a few buildings, killed a handful of Palestinians and then let the Egyptians negotiate another short-lived ceasefire. I have long liked the Prime Minister, but war and after with the same lunatics who always stop the war when it suits them to rearm does nothing to provide security of the Israeli people.  There comes a time when this nonsense has to stop. Further, Liberman's insistence that the ultra-Orthodox must serve in the Army is well justified. There is nothing pacifist about the Torah which has plenty of laws of war set forth. If the ultra-Orthodox want to live a Torah life, let them also fulfill the commandments of Torah relative to defending the homeland. If I were an Israeli and an election were held today, I'd be tempted to vote for Liberman. But that's easy for me to say. For Israelis who vote that way it would likely mean committing their children to ground combat in Gaza unless Israel uses a neutron bomb. That will only happen if Israel goes to (nuclear) war with Iran.

       We have not yet seen President Trump's deal of the century to address this problem and what in particular to do with two million Palestinians in Gaza. If Israel must undergo another election it will likely set back whatever the deal is, but with Iran getting closer to the bomb, time is running out fast. As I write this Jared Kushner is in Israel on May 29, 2019, and he is supposed to meet Netanyahu on May 30. But it looks like there will be a new election on September 17, 2019.  The Parliament (Knesset) is dissolving. Can Liberman form a government? He would have to do much better than earning 5 seats in the upcoming election. Meanwhile hearings about possible corruption by Netanyahu are scheduled for October, 2019.

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF THE MATRIX. As per my standard protocol, no statistical significance is assigned to the axis term, here AVIGDOR at its 31st lowest skip ELS in wrapped Torah. Normally for a 7-letter name I would prefer to use a last name, but LIBERMAN is only 6 letters and I don't like axis terms that short. So, for this experiment I decided to go for something that I (almost) never find as an axis term - the full 13 letter name, with AVIGDOR as the axis term, LIBERMAN nearby and NETANYAHU at skip +1 (I knew before starting that there are 16 such occurrences in Torah - generally in association with the land given by the Almighty to the Jews).

       Normally I like to look at the combined statistical significance of all a priori terms on a matrix. Here the odds against it, after factoring in ELS rank 31 of the axis term, works out to be about 3,517,363 to 1. But in this case I'd rather just call attention to the statistical value of individual terms, in part because I sought the matrix while the story was developing on the day that the Knesset was being dissolved. As such, of interest is that during a time of interest in whether Netanyahu can avoid indictment for corruption if he fails to be reelected, the most significant term was TO PROSECUTE. It was on the 672-letter matrix against odds of about 454 to 1. However, this allows no extra value for the fact that TO PROSECUTE (twice) touches NETANYAHU in 96 letters.

       Odds against LIBERMAN being on the matrix were about 50 to 1, and odds against NETANYAHU being at skip +1 were about 28 to 1, but I don't advocate combined odds on this matrix because there was a protocol in place that meant I only examined a matrix if I knew there was an AVIGDOR, a LIBERMAN, and a NETANYAHU on it.

       WAR is in the open text against odds of about 13 to 1, but I sought 5 synonyms for TO STOP and found one of them against odds of about 3.6 to 1. I only show it because  WAR and TO STOP share a letter. Maybe the matrix means that the mini wars that erupt every Friday between Hamas on Gaza and Israel will stop if LIBERMAN gets his way. Sort of Peace Through Strength.

       ARMY had about a 28% chance to be at a special case skip (here the absolute skip of the axis term).

       Overall, the most significant part of what is seen here seems to be a warning that if Netanyahu loses the election on the fall of 2019 he can expect to be prosecuted. Note that on the day that Liberman delivered his body blow to Bibi, BBC reports that Bibi's wife has reportedly agreed a plea deal with prosecutors over allegations she misused state funds. Sara Netanyahu was charged with fraud and breach of trust last June. She was accused of spending $99,300 on outside catering while falsely declaring there were no cooks available at the PM's residence. Mrs. Netanyahu has now agreed to reimburse the state $12,440 and pay another $2,770 as a fine. She will also reportedly admit to a lesser charge of exploiting the mistake of another person.

THE FIRST POLL AFTER THE GOVERNMENT FALLS. On May 30, 2019 the Jerusalem Post wrote that if the election was held now, Yisrael Beytenu (Liberman's party) would increase from its current five seats to nine, the poll found, which would make it the third largest party after Likud and Blue and White. The Likud would gain two seats from 35 to 37 – but if, as expected, Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked runs with the party, it would win 41 seats. United Torah Judaism (UTJ) would win eight seats, Shas (ultra-Orthodox) seven, and the Union of Right-Wing Parties and Meretz six each. Hadash-Ta’al would get (communist, favoring a 2-state solution) and the New Right (secular and religious zionists favoring a one state solution) under Naftali Bennett and Shaked would each win five, and the Balad-United Arab list four. Labor and Zehut (a zionist party favoring 1 state and legalization of marijuana) would not cross the threshold.

        Among Center-Right voters, 57% said Liberman’s behavior decreased their chances of voting for his party, while 15% said it raised the chances and 28% said it made no impact.