THE ISRAELI ELECTION OF 2019
It's not all about the popular vote. It's about who can form a coalition. This page was posted on 4/9/2019.
In 2019 the election in Israel comes at a time that Prime Minister Netanyahu faces possible indictment over corruption. The last poll showed that he and his Likud Party were favored to win 28 seats in the Knesset, with Benny Gantz in the Blue White Party also getting 28 seats. To form a coalition the winner must have 61 seats. Yair Lapid, a Centrist candidate, has promised to help Benny Gantz get to that number, but only in exchange for a promise that Lapid will be Prime Minister after two and a half years. Even so, it is believed that Netanyahu will have an easier time forming a right wing coalition than Gantz will have forming a left wing coalition.
STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF THE MATRIX. On the axis term is COALITION. Before considering ELS term rank, the Hebrew year of the election is on the matrix against odds of about 97 to 1. LAPID is at a special case skip also against odds of about 97 to 1. Gantz does not have his last name on the matrix. There is an ELS of his first name BENNY touching the axis term, but it was not at a special case skip and it had a 98.8% chance to be somewhere on the 630-letter axis. NETANYAHU is at skip +1 against odds of about 30.7 to 1. After dividing the combined significance of the odds by 9 to account for ELS rank of the axis term, the matrix exists against odds of about 32,601 to 1, but a serious conclusion will likely require finding more significant matrices.
THE ROLE OF YAIR LAPID IN THE ELECTION.
The election is the first time that three former heads of the army, the Israel Defense Forces, have united to run for office. The Blue and White alliance is led by Mr. Gantz and two other veteran generals, Gabi Ashkenazi and Moshe Yaalon. They have teamed up with a well-known centrist party, Yesh Atid, led by Yair Lapid, a former journalist, television host and finance minister. Mr. Gantz has agreed to hand off the prime minister position to Mr. Lapid after two and a half years if their parties win.
INITIAL ELECTION RESULTS. The first and smallest poll showed Gantz leading Netanyahu by 33 to 27 seats. Again, to form a coalition requires 61 seats. Three bigger, later polls showed Gantz only leading by one seat, after four hours Netanyahu led by 3.8%. There may be another election later this year due to the upcoming possibly indictment, but Netanyahu doesn't have to step down if indicted. While that is so the matrix may indicate that did there is a future with Lapid. If the Zehut Party gets four seats (but no fewer) then Moshe Feiglin may be a king maker. He has been quoted as approving of Israel building the Third Temple (but, alas, he is also in favor of legalizing marijuana). While President Rivlin could ask Gantz, Lapid or any other member of the Knesset to try to form a coalition first because Rivlin supposedly hates Netanyahu or because he may be concerned about the possible indictment, that is unlikely. Overall the odds are now favoring Netanyahu. If he carries the day it may explain why we don't see a Gantz on Figure 1. It looks like this matrix was predictive for Netanyahu, but it might also indicate that if he later falls, Lapid may take his place.
LOOKING BACK WITH FIGURE 2 - THE 2013 ELECTION. YAIR LAPID was the axis term. He finished second. The Code correctly picked NETANYAHU as the ruler. YAIR LAPID shared a letter yud with SECOND. Figure 2 was found against odds of about 2,875 to 1.