Will Primitive Life on Mars Stop Elon Musk's Colonization Plans?

SIGNIFICANCE OF THE MATRIX. In my standard protocol, no statistical significance is assigned to the axis term. In this case that's the only ELS of COLONIZE MARS in wrapped or unwrapped Torah (here it's unwrapped meaning that the computer only had to make one pass through Torah to find it). However, the 10 letters making up the full axis term COLONIZE MARS are a rare find. When an a priori axis term reaches 10 letters it's time to start including the odds for (or against) its appearance in the full statistical calculation. For this purpose I use R values which are on the CodeFinder software. That does not mean that I endorse R values that are combined with each other. With R values the more positive they are, the more significant they are. COLONIZE MARS was found against odds of about 164.4371723 to 1.

       There are three a priori key words on the matrix that are at special cases skip (+/- 1 or the absolute skip of the axis term). They are LIFE, METHANE, and NUKE. Obviously a major reason to go to Mars is to find out if there is life there. When living things die and decay on Earth, or simply metabolize food, often a telltale sign of the life is the existence of methane gas emissions. They are present on Mars. Finally, Elon Musk's plans, long term, include using nuclear explosions to melt the polar caps (I would include Utopia Planitia - a frozen fresh water lake the size of Lake Superior on Earth). He wants to do this to increase Martian air density and pressure, something that I will discuss in detail later in this article. LIFE was found at a special case skip against odds of about 11.17 to 1, METHANE was found this way against if about 11.4 to 1, and NUKE was found this way against odds of about 6 to 1.

       ELON was found at a non-special case skip against odds slight less than 5 to 1. The other terms were each easier to find than calling a coin toss correctly so I won't dwell on them now.  As the spreadsheet above shows, if I just follow my normal protocol and I do not assign significance to the axis term then the matrix was found against odds of about 18,224 to 1. However, if I include the value of the axis term, then the final odds against finding this much encoded together is altered to about 2,996,743 to 1 and the matrix becomes quite interesting. While a short transliteration of MUSK is on the matrix, it had about a 68% chance to be here. But the only translteration of ELON MUSK is the axis term on Figure 4 at the end of this article.

THE ARTICLE OF CONCERN - SORRY ELON MUSK, BUT IT'S NOW CLEAR THAT COLONIZING MARS IS UNLIKELY - AND A BAD IDEA.     

       It's time to critique the article below. There was a time when people who thought there is life on Mars were viewed by many as being a bit odd. But we have reached a state where there is so much evidence suggesting at least primitive life on Mars now that it is used as an excuse to put off sending people there. To be sure, one of my research partners, Marco de Marco, has long expressed a fear of cross contamination between our world and Mars. It may be that the solution to at least safeguard life on Earth is to follow the plan of Mars One and send people there on a one way mission. Indeed, Elon Musk has expressed his desire to both live and die on Mars.

       My challenges to the article below are given in dark blue bold fonts.

This article was originally published at The Conversation. The publication contributed the article to Space.com's Expert Voices: Op-Ed & Insights.

Space X and Tesla founder Elon Musk has a vision for colonizing Mars, based on a big rocket, nuclear explosions and an infrastructure to transport millions of people there. This was seen as highly ambitious but technically challenging in several ways. Planetary protection rules  (see Comment 1) and the difficulties of terraforming (making the planet hospitable by, for example, warming it up) and dealing with the harsh radiation were quoted as severe obstacles (See Comment 2).

COMMENT 1: The author mentions "planetary protection rules," but does not cite them or deal with how to enforce them. On a planet where we still find nations, like Syria, that use poison gas against people a century after it was outlawed, it's far from clear that all space-faring nations will follow any rules or international laws. It's even less certain that companies like Space-X will do so, especially when President Trump has announced his desire to see Americans walking on Mars and other worlds before he leaves office.

       On looking for who in America might be involved with such laws I found that NASA advertised one such job in 2017. It was only a three-year position and it was filled by Catharine Conley. There is a COSPAR PLANETARY PROTECTION POLICY. It was issued in 2002 and amended in 2011 by the Bureau and Council, World Space Council, Houston, Texas.

       Rather than having enormous powers Conley indicated that the purpose of her temporary position is "explicitly to protect the activities that humans want to do. Initially that would be science, but other things will be done in the future as well. If you wanted to drill into an aquifer on Mars, it would be in the interest of future colonists that you keep the drilling clean because organisms can grow in the aquifer and change the conditions so that it is no longer available. We’ve seen that happen on Earth. That would be really unfortunate." So we don't exactly have a fearsome resource here that would stop Elon Musk.

        It should also be noted that NASA visits my sites frequently, though sometimes it's just an Army Intel Base that is disguising itself as NASA Ames (many times every day for at least four years). I have long logged in all government visits - foreign and domestic. It looks like among frequent foreign visitors are the Iranians, although U.S. Intelligence seems to delight in posing as the Kremlin or other foreign actors to see how I react (which would simply be to log them in with notes where I suspect the real source to be Uncle Sam).  As is shown on Figure 2 below, Iran signed but did not ratify COSPAR. Even if they had ratified it, it is far from certain that they would honor any such agreement if they ever obtain rocket technology sufficient to reach another world.

COMMENT 2: The ultraviolet radiation (µv) on Mars is not as high as advertised. With the advent of the 2018 Martian Global Dust Storm it has actually been low at the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Curiosity Rover from at least June 15, 2018 through August 9, 2018. However before the storm NASA was reluctant to show us sols (Martian days) with low µv. As I document on my MarsCorrect.com site, normally average µv is about 2.83 on a scale where 1 is low, 2 is medium, 3 is high, 4 is very high and 5 is extremely high (which was never recorded there). Results for the first three Martian years (about 5.5 terrestrial years) of MSL operations are shown on Table 2 as follows:

 THE SORRY ELON ARTICLE CONTINUES:

Undeterred, Musk took a first step towards his aim in February this year with the launch of a Tesla roadster car into an orbit travelling beyond Mars on the first Falcon Heavy rocket. This dramatically illustrated the increasing launch capability for future missions made available by partnerships between commercial and government agencies.

But six months later, the plans have started to look more like fantasy. We have since learned that there could be life beneath Mars’ surface and that it may be impossible to terraform its surface.

The possibility that there currently could be life on the red planet was raised last week as scientists reported the discovery of a salt water lake beneath Mars’ surface. The lake would be 1.5km below the south polar cap and at least 20km in diameter. This was found from analysis of subsurface radar data from the Mars Express spacecraft. The water is thought to be briny, with the likely magnesium, calcium, and sodium perchlorate salts acting as an antifreeze down to temperatures of perhaps 200K (-73.15°C).

THE SORRY ELON ARTICLE CONTINUES with a photo of Mars' south polar cap, hiding the lake. However, we replace that with the more accurate Figure 4. See comment 3:

COMMENT 3: Most stories about the deep lake get the location wrong and that is true with the article that we are critiquing here too. The lake is NOT under the Martian South Pole. Rather it's is at 193°E, 81° South. On Mars, 1 degree of latitude difference equals about 59 km, so 9 degrees further north is about 531 km (331.876 miles) away from the South Pole and it is not in an area that is covered by ice throughout the year. See Figure 3.

THE SORRY ELON ARTICLE CONTINUES:

This is exciting as it is the first definitive detection of liquid water on Mars, and it is possible that there may be further deep lakes elsewhere on the planet. This means there is a real possibility of current life on Mars. See Comment 4 and our full article about Mars MAVEN.

COMMENT 4: It is misleading to say this is the first definitive detection of liquid water on Mars. There is general agreement that running water has been found on the surface at over a thousand sites on Mars called Recurring Slope Lineae. They may even exist at Gale Crater where the Mars Science Laboratory is located. While there are arguments among NASA scientists as to whether it would be unwise to potentially contaminate the area by visiting it, Elon Musk is not a Government Entity. If he intends to personally live on Mars (and die there too) he is going to need water fast unless he intends to die fast (and that is not his intent). Alternately SpaceX could land above Utopia Planitia and get its water from the huge frozen fresh water lake a few feet under the dust and dirt that covers the lake. Ultimately there are two issues here:

(1) How to keep terrestrial bacteria from contaminating any potential Martian biosphere so that if we find living organisms we can be sure they have either evolved there, or been transported there after a major asteroid impact on Earth.

(2) How to avoid bringing back such organisms to Earth so that we don't cause a plague on our own planet. This can best be ensured by making our missions to Mars one way, colonizing missions.

THE SORRY ELON ARTICLE CONTINUES: We already knew life could have existed on Mars in the past. There are several pieces of evidence indicating that Mars was habitable 3.8-4 billion years ago. Data from recent missions – including Mars Global Surveyor, Odyssey, Opportunity, Curiosity and Mars Express – have provided mounting evidence that water was present on the surface in streams and lakes with reasonable acidity and that the right chemistry for life to evolve existed there around the time that life was evolving on Earth.

But Mars lost its magnetic field, which would have protected life from harsh radiation from space, 3.8 billion years ago. This also meant its atmosphere started leaking into space, making it increasingly inhospitable. So living organisms may not have survived. See Comment 5.

COMMENT 5: Hitler once said that , “If you tell a big enough lie and tell it frequently enough, it will be believed.” When I first looked at how many dust devils were dancing across the Martian surface I knew that something was wrong with the NASA portrait of Mars giving it a near vacuum atmosphere. It took years before I had the courage to challenge the entire atmospheric picture of Mars, but with a full report that is over a thousand pages of hard data, and I can say that we are being fed the Big Lie by NASA. The truth is summarized in our Abstract for Mars Correct - Critique of All NASA Mars Weather Data. It is as follows:

ABSTRACT: We present evidence that NASA is seriously understating Martian air pressure. Our 9-year study critiques 2,136 Sols (6 terrestrial years, 3.19 Martian years, 27 sols into a Global Dust Storm at MSL) of highly problematic MSL Rover Environmental Monitoring Station (REMS) weather data, and offers an in depth audit of over 8,311 hourly Viking 1 and 2 weather reports. We discuss analysis of technical papers, NASA documents, and personal interviews of transducer designers. We troubleshoot pressures based on radio occultation/spectroscopy, and the previously accepted small pressure ranges that could be measured by Viking 1 and 2 (18 mbar), Pathfinder and Phoenix (12 mbar), and MSL (11.5 mbar - altered to 14 mbar in 2017). For MSL there were several pressures published from August 30 to September 5, 2012 that were from 737 mbar to 747 mbar – two orders of magnitude high – only to be retracted. We challenged many pressures and NASA revised them down, however 9 years into this audit it has come to our attention that of two pressure sensors ordered by NASA for Mars Pathfinder, one of them (Tavis Dash No. 1) could in fact measure up to 1,034 mbar. Further, for the MSL according to an Abstract to the American Geophysical Union for the Fall 2012 meeting, The Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) states of their MSL (and Phoenix) Vaisala transducers, “The pressure device measurement range is 0 – 1025 hPa in temperature range of -45°C – 55°C, but its calibration is optimized for the Martian pressure range of 4 – 12 hPa..” So while we originally thought that of the five landers on Mars that had meteorological suites, none of them could measure Earth-like pressures, in fact, if the higher pressure sensor Pathfinder Tavis Dash 1 (0-15 PSIA/1,034 mbar) was sent rather than Tavis Dash 2 (0-0.174 PSIA/12 mbar), three landers were actually equipped to get the job done, but the public was largely kept in the dark about it. All 19 low uv values were removed when we asked about them, although they eventually restored 12 of them. REMS always-sunny opacity reports were contradicted by Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter photos. Why REMS Team data was so wrong is a matter of speculation, but we clearly demonstrate that their weather data was regularly revised after they studied critiques in working versions of this report and on our website at http://davidaroffman.com. REMS even labelled all dust storm weather as sunny, although they did list the uv values as all low. This rendition of the Basic Report begins at MSL Sol 2129. The last weather report was for Sol 2136. There is a possibility that the dust storm will knock out the pressure sensor (assuming that it was really functioning before the storm). There is no way to clean or change MSL's dust filter.

Vikings and MSL showed consistent timing of daily pressure spikes which we link to how gas pressure in a sealed container would vary with Absolute temperature, to heating by radioisotope thermoelectric generators (RTGs), and to dust clots at air access tubes and dust filters. Pathfinder, Phoenix and MSL wind measurement failed. Phoenix and MSL pressure transducer design problems included confusion about dust filter location, and lack of information about nearby heat sources due to International Traffic and Arms Regulations (ITAR). NASA Ames could not replicate dust devils at 10 mbar. Rapidly filled MER Spirit tracks required wind speeds of 80 mph at the assumed low pressures. These winds were never recorded on Mars. Nor could NASA explain drifting Barchan sand dunes. Based on the above and dust devils on Arsia Mons to altitudes of 17 km above areoid (Martian equivalent of sea level), spiral storms with 10 km eye-walls above Arsia Mons and similar storms above Olympus Mons (over 21 km high), dust storm opacity at MER Opportunity blacking out the sun, snow that descends 1 to 2 km in only 5 or 10 minutes, excessive aero braking, liquid water running on the surface in numerous locations at Recurring Slope Lineae (RSL) and stratus clouds 13 km above areoid, we argue for an average pressure at areoid of ~511 mbar rather than the accepted 6.1 mbar. This pressure grows to 1,050 mbar in the Hellas Basin.

THE SORRY ELON ARTICLE CONTINUES:

But while the new discovery may fuel aspiring colonizers’ dreams that the water in the subsurface lake might be usable to sustain a human presence, the reality is very different.

The risk of contamination means we shouldn’t send humans there until we know for sure whether there is naturally evolved life – something that could take years to decades. We will need to drill under the surface and to analyze samples, either in-situ or from material returned to Earth, and find suitable biomarkers to be sure. See comment 6.

COMMENT 6: We believe that we offer the best data available to the public with respect to Martian weather, better in fact than what NASA offers. How an we claim this when the data goes to them first? We claim it because often we cause NASA to alter its weather data. For example, we got NASA to take down ALL wind data from MSL, It never changed from 2 meters per second from the East for about 9 months. We pointed out to Guy Webster (JPL Public Relations) that with Viking 1 and 2 the wind direction and strength changed for every hour. We also pointed out that their published sunrise and sunset times were not only wrong, but impossible. NASA then changed them to match the calculations of Dr. David Roffman (my son). We use before and after print screen to document the many changes that NASA makes to its publically available data. These may be best obtained for our weather reports. Links to them are on Table 3.

       While our weather data is essential to understanding the real weather on Mars, we have other, more sensitive data. We maintain detailed records about who visits our sites. Initially the following of NASA was extraordinary. However, in 2018 we learned that a substantial portion of those who appeared to be at NASA Ames were in fact at Fort Huachuca, an Army Intelligence Base. The very fact that our findings are largely reviewed by a military intelligence site rather than by NASA suggests that there is something about Mars that our Government finds necessary to hide from the public. This something likely plays a role in our President's recent decision to establish a Space Force.  I recently did a radio interview about it. My bottom line here is this: The Government has kept us from sending people to Mars for close to a half century after we left the moon. We see in the Sorry Elon article an attempt to delay our arrival for much further. I think that President Trump knows that NASA stands for Never A Straight Answer. He knows that they represent that same Establishment that has a primary goal of removing him from office. He is wise in encouraging Elon Musk to head for Mars as fast as possible - so long as it is a one way trip. Musk is willing to give his wealth and his life to carry out the mission. We should back him.

      As for Fort Huachuca, it remains unclear as to which side of this war you will come down on. We have seen too much corruption from the FBI. I am hopeful that you will support the Constitution, President Trump, Elon Musk, and myself. But I am not naive. I have asked for meetings many times in the past. If your purpose is in accordance with the Constitution, I am for you. But if it is otherwise... figure it out.

THE SORRY ELON ARTICLE CONTINUES:

Terraforming plans crushed?

Perhaps even more damning, the long-suggested idea of terraforming Mars is now firmly locked in the realm of science fiction. Musk has previously indicated that he wants to terraform the planet to make it more Earth-like, so you can “eventually walk around outside without anything on.” This would most easily be done by producing an atmosphere made of heat-trapping greenhouse gases locked in the planet’s ice in order to raise its temperature and pressure. Musk has suggested that we could drop thermonuclear bombs on the ice at its poles in order to heat it up to release the carbon dioxide.

But according to a new study, published in Nature Astronomy, Mars has lost so much of its potential greenhouse gases to space over billions of years that there is now no possibility of transforming the remaining atmosphere into a breathable one with available technology.

The study is based on measurements of the recent escape rate of gases to space measured over the last 15 years by Mars Express and the last four years by MAVEN. This can tell us how much effective greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and water are available at Mars. The measurements, combined with knowledge of the inventories of carbon dioxide and water on Mars from recent space missions, show that greenhouses gases locked in the ice caps are not enough to provide the necessary heating. See Comment 7.

COMMENT 7: What MAVEN can measure is an amount of gas detected as "lost" at altitudes of 93 to 3,900 miles above Mars. NASA then uses the 6.1 mbar pressure at areoid figure and compares the density associated with that found at altitude. Using what is certainly a low density figure (based on the all vigorous weather found at low altitude) NASA then asserts that at that rate of gas loss, Mars has lost about 98% of its original atmosphere.  Based on the altitude of stratus clouds 13 km above areoid, 16 km above PathFinder, and the maximum altitude of these clouds above Earth, we estimate pressure at areoid (the Martian equivalent of sea level) at 511 mbar rather than 6 mbar. See Section 12.5 of our Basic Report. Our Basic Report offers an abundance of evidence that the two types of pressure sensors (Tavis or Vaisala) clogged on landing. The 2018 dust storm should cause greater pressure (due to the weight of the dust) at Curiosity in the current Martian year than we saw in the previous Martian year even though the Rover is a little over 200 meters higher. But the reported (manufactured) pressure is running a good bit lower. We think that is because the calculations for the manufactured data failed to account for the weight of the dust.

      The rate of gas loss was directly contracted by a NASA MAVEN Mission Briefing. See 18:39 into the video. Rather than offering a loss rate of 2 to 3 kg per second (2,000 to 3,000 grams) we are told that the rater of loss was only about 100 grams per second! So Sky & Telescope overstates the mass loss by a factor of 20 to 30.

THE SORRY ELON ARTICLE CONTINUES:

More may be available deep within the planet but extracting that is well beyond today’s technology. Also, the atmosphere is still being lost due to the lack of a magnetic field, so that would need to be somehow slowed to maintain any changes achieved by terraforming. This means that potential explorers would need to use heavy, airtight walls, roofs or buildings to provide the right atmosphere and the required screening from cosmic radiation.

While Musk may be disappointed by these new results, most Mars scientists are breathing a sigh of relief. There may be present or past life on Mars, and we can now focus on finding it.

We will be searching for signs of life with the ESA-Russian ExoMars 2020 rover, and the NASA Mars 2020 mission will gather samples for eventual return to Earthbound laboratories by around 2030. The results of all this may tell us if there was, is or could be life elsewhere. In our solar system, the best targets are Mars, Saturn’s moons Enceladus and Titan and Jupiter’s moon Europa. And these just hint of the potential for life on the many planets beyond our own solar system.

Mars is bright in our skies this week, the brightest since 2003. The red planet is never far from our thoughts, whether as a potential cradle for life beyond Earth or as a target for humans in the future. We live in exciting times when it comes to space exploration. So let’s not spoil one of the largest and most fundamental experiments for humankind by letting dreams of colonization go too far – at least until we know whether there is life.

Andrew Coates, Professor of Physics, Deputy Director (Solar System) at the Mullard Space Science Laboratory, UCL

FIGURE 4.

        On Figure 4 the axis term is the only ELS of ELON MUSK. At skip +1 is the shortest transliteration of MARS. I checked for two transliterations and the Hebrew word for Mars. One of them was found here against odds of about 677 to 1. There is only one other finding in Torah of a transliteration (this one) of Mars at skip +1. At the same absolute skip of ELON MUSK is SABOTAGE. I have written before as has the Washington Post on September 30, 2016  about the possibility of SpaceX getting hit by sabotage. But the (temporary) Planetary Protection Officer (Catharine Conley) wrote about people contaminating the potential aquifer on Mars. SABOTAGE was found at a special case skip against odds of about 85 to 1. Connecting SABOTAGE to ELON MUSK at skip +1 is TO THE WATER. It was found at skip +1 on the full 225-letter matrix (with a white background) against odds of about 23 to 1, but it only took 32 letters to show ELON MUSK, SABOTAGE and TO THE WATER. NASA always takes steps to prevent bacteria from surviving a trip to Mars, but their effectiveness is likely less than 100%.  On Figure 4 there is a 3-letter word for GERM that appears against odds of about 11.3 to 1. While no extra credit is given for it, this word intersects and shares a letter tet with ROCKET. ROCKET is on the matrix against odds of about 4.15 to 1. Because UFO was not at a special case skip, and it required expansion of the matrix from 225 to 300 letters, I left it off the calculation. Ditto for AND THEY SHOULD WASH because it was only found a posteriori. Overall the 225-letter matrix with a white background was found against odds of about 64,930,456 to 1. It may be that part of a plan to sabotage Musk's ambitions is simply to publish articles like the one I critiqued above. It is true that when Columbus "discovered" America, he brought along bacteria that eventually decimated much of the native population in the Americas. Great caution is needed but I have confidence that Elon Musk will be careful. While it is important to try to protect any indigenous bacteria or simple life forms that may exist on Mars, we need another planet as an insurance policy to shield our species from potential dangers that might exterminate us. Simply put, people are more important than bacteria. And if it turns out that our Government is covering up intelligent life on Mars now or in the past as Dr. John Brandenburg asserts, our Space Force needs to know what they're up against.