TRANSFORMERS REQUIRED FOR A KOREAN NUCLEAR WAR

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Before we push the button, we better be sure we can solve the electrical transformer problem. Posted on 9/5/2017.

North Korea apparently detonated its first hydrgen bomb on September 3, 2017. The North Korean News Agency (KCNA) said in English that "The H-bomb, the explosive power of which is adjustable from tens kiloton to hundreds kiloton, is a multi-functional thermonuclear nuke with great destructive power which can be detonated even at high altitudes for super-powerful EMP (electromagnetic pulse) attack according to strategic goal." In planning against the threat our military should consider the issue of electrical transformer vulnerability as well as the location of potential replacement transformers. On Figure 1 the axis term is ELECTRIC TRANSFORMER. KOREAN is at the same skip. WAR is in the open text. CHINESE is at skip +1, as is KIM.

Figure 1 above: ELECTRIC TRANSFORMER is encoded with KOREAN, WAR, KIM and CHINESE. The spreadsheet below shows the odds calculation.

STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF FIGURE 1.  As per my normal protocol no statistical significance is assigned to the axis term, here the 6th lowest skip ELS of ELECTRIC TRANSFORMER in unwrapped or wrapped Torah. Before reducing combined odds by a factor of 6 to account for axis term ELS rank, one of four transliterations sought for KOREAN is at special case skip (+/- 1 or the absolute skip of the axis term) against odds of  about 279 to 1. WAR is in the open text against odds of about 16 to 1. CHINESE is at skip +1 against odds of about 17.95 to 1. Note that the word used here for CHINESE is the same in Hebrew as SINAIKIM was found at skip +1 against odds of about 7.5 to 1. Although the initial odds against this matrox were about 601,984 to 1, after dividing these odds by 6 the final odds against finding the matrix were about 100,330 to 1. There are many other matrices found that warn about the potential of a nuclear war with Korea (and China). Click here for my Table of Contents for Korean articles and matrices.

WARNING TO WAR PLANNERS. While my knee-jerk response is to want to nuke North Korea right now, we must understand that if we lose our power transformers due to an EMP attack, we are not prepared to replace them quickly with American made transformers. In fact according to the U.S. Department of Energy, "The United States has limited production capability to manufacture LPTs. In 2010, only 15% of the Nation’s demand for power transformers (with a capacity rating of 60 MVA and above) was met through domestic production. Although the exact statistics are unavailable, power transformer market supply conditions indicate that the Nation’s reliance on foreign manufacturers was even greater for EHV power transformers with a capacity rating of 300 MVA and above (or a voltage rating of 345 kV and above)." In fact, this means that we might be forced to obtain them from China, who is likely to be our enemy if we attack North Korea first. Estimates are that we could lose much or of our grad for 6 months to 2 years in such an attack.  While North Korea's plan has been to stall us while they complete their nuclear arsenal, it is we who should consider stalling them until we can build or buy replacement generators and get them into EMP hardened shelters. What is also important to understand is that if we threaten to cut off all trade with China (as I have advocated before), we must be certain that we can quickly obtain the needed from transformers for elsewhere. This need should be assigned the highest national priority because as a loss of the national power grid could result in the loss of 90% of our population within a year, with many of the survivors reduced to a state of cannibalism. See Figure 3 below.

 

 

Figure 2 below: Two views of the Starfish Prime nuclear test 500 km above the Pacific Ocean as seen from Honolulu, 2000 km away.

Figure 3 - Warning that an electromagnetic event could lead to cannabalism.

In 2012 Republican presidential candidate Newt Gingrich attracted much attention by warning about the threat of an EMP attack against the United States. This threat is summed up in 3-minute video on Fox News here. I read a book entitled ONE SECOND AFTER. The author is William R. Forstchen, but the foreword is written by Gingrich. The novel is about what would happen to America if a nuclear weapon were to detonate, say 300 miles up, above Kansas. How would this impact our power systems, our computer-based society, our food and medical supplies if an electromagnetic pulse were to hit us from such a device? On Figure 3 the axis term is ELECTRICITY MAGNET. It is touched by PULSE and WAR (both terms are at ELS). ROCKET at skip 2 is there, as is a form of the year of the book’s publication, (5)771/2011. Finally, the open text has a verse cross the axis term which describes a fate that seems close to the book’s answer about our food supply, namely Leviticus 26:29 which states THE FLESH OF YOUR SONS AND THE FLESH OF YOUR DAUGHTERS YOU SHALL EAT. By page 390 (two months after the attack) people had degenerated into cannibalism. The video on the link above indicates that within one year of the attack two-thirds of the U.S. population would be dead. But the video only uses an altitude for detonation of 250 miles. It leaves much of our west and Florida still with power. That slim hope might quickly vanish if the bomb goes off 50 miles higher, however as is shown on Figure 1 it appears that Florida might be spared because ther are no high risk voltage transformers in this state (or in Arizona, Texas, Alabama or Louisiana).

THE EMP THREAT IS NOT NEW, BUT THE NORTH KOREAN INDICATION THAT THEY WILL USE IT TO ATTACK US IS.  EMP is not a new threat. Those of you who saw the television film, THE DAY AFTER, remember that just before Kansas City got nuked, the power went off due to a high level nuke designed to cut power - especially to our missile bases in the Mid-West. For the immediate effects of EMP, see the segment of THE DAY AFTER between 2 minutes and 2:42 into this link. The rest of the link just provided shows what we typically think will happen as a city is nuked, but as the book ONE SECOND AFTER makes very clear, it is not necessary to actually hit one of our cities to destroy our country. EMP travels at the speed of light in a line of site.  So a sufficiently high blast could reach all of the lower 48 states. It probably would take two more missiles with similar blasts to take out Alaska and Hawaii in terms of electrical power and everything related to it.
       Why did this threat not lead to the destruction of the U.S. during the Cold War? The answer is that the Soviets were not insane.  They knew that we had thousands of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs), and other nuclear weapon systems pointed at them. By employing M.A.D. (Mutual Assured Destruction/Mutual Annihilation Deterrent), both sides knew that it was certain suicide to attack the other side. More, once ICBMS were fired by one side, the other side had time to fire its own missiles in response.
       The back cover of ONE SECOND AFTER points out that months before publication it was cited on the floor of Congress as a book all Americans should read.
 
HEIGHT OF THE DETONATION AND DISTANCE TO THE HORIZON. Radiation travels in a line of sight, and not over the horizon. EMP is a great threat. However, at 30 km high the horizon is only 387 miles way (774 miles damage diameter) - see the calculator at http://www.ringbell.co.uk/info/hdist.htm. This is enough to cause much damage, but not enough to defeat us. At 300 miles over Kansas the horizon is 1,571 miles away ( a damage diameter of 3,560 miles) and the U.S. is toast.
 
STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF FIGURE 3. As is my standard protocol, no significance is assigned the axis term (ELECTRICITY MAGNET) or to the a posteriori phrase that went through it (THE FLESH OF YOUR SONS AND THE FLESH OF YOUR DAUGHTERS YOU SHALL EAT) although it could be argued that I was indeed looking for something about starvation in conjunction with the EMP issue. The key terms that were plainly a priori were PULSE, WAR, ROCKET and the year of the book's publication (5)771/2011 which may or may not turn out to also be the year of such an attempted attack. There was about 1 chance in 20 for PULSE to be on the matrix, the same chance for WAR, about 1 chance in 2.4 for rocket to be there, but for the year (a short form of 5771/2011) it was easier to find this term than to successfully call a coin toss. Overall the matrix is rated at p = 0.00056, meaning that it appeared against odds of about 1,783 to 1.

A RAY OF HOPE: EPRI RESEARCH FINDS LIMITED IMPACT TO TRANSFORMERS FROM E3 ELECTRMAGNETIC PULSE 

PALO ALTO, Calif. (February 21, 2017) – A new Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) report finds that a limited number of bulk-power transformers would be at potential risk of thermal damage due to a single high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) attack, but that additional work is needed to fully investigate the impact to the entire bulk-power system.

HEMP is caused by the detonation of a nuclear weapon above the earth’s surface and is characterized by a high-magnitude, short duration pulse (E1), an intermediate pulse similar to lightning (E2), and a late-time component (E3), which is similar to a severe geomagnetic disturbance event. Potential impacts can range from damage to electronic components and insulators (E1 and E2) to voltage collapse and transformer damage (E3).

The EPRI report, “Magnetohydrodynamic Electromagnetic Pulse (MHD-EMP) Assessment of the Continental U.S. Electric Grid: GIC and Transformer Thermal Analysis,” evaluated the E3 grid impacts from a single high-altitude nuclear burst over 11 target locations. It included a geomagnetically induced current (GIC) analysis and transformer thermal assessment. 

The study used modeling and assessment techniques and included bulk-power transformers, which convert high-voltage electricity from one transmission voltage to another enabling it to move from a generation source to the end user. It found between 3 and 14 transformers would be at potential risk of thermal damage; however, the risk from thermal damage does not suggest that they would be rendered inoperable during an E3 event. Rather the results indicate that while transformers may be at risk of damage, further analysis would be needed to understand the extent of damage using asset and system specific data, including the condition of the transformer.

“HEMP is a complex and challenging issue,” said Rob Manning, EPRI vice president of Transmission and Distribution. “This report provides the technical basis that is needed before an effective strategy to mitigate the effects of HEMP can be developed. There is still a lot of work to be done in order to better understand how HEMP may impact grid reliability and recovery efforts.

“This assessment indicates that the failure of a large number of bulk-power transformers due to thermal damage from E3 is unlikely. But the study results should not be interpreted to indicate that it is not a potential problem since impacts related to widespread outages due to voltage collapse are still being investigated,” he said.

In April 2016, EPRI, in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), started a comprehensive three-year research project to provide a technical basis by which electric companies can address the HEMP threat by evaluating potential impacts, hardening and mitigation options, and recovery plans. (To see the DOE project outline click on this link.)

EPRI is also collaborating with utilities and several national laboratories. To view the report, click on this link.


About EPRI:

The Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. (EPRI, www.epri.com) conducts research and development relating to the generation, delivery and use of electricity for the benefit of the public. An independent, nonprofit organization, EPRI brings together its scientists and engineers as well as experts from academia and industry to help address challenges in electricity, including reliability, efficiency, affordability, health, safety and the environment. EPRI's members represent approximately 90 percent of the electricity generated and delivered in the United States, and international participation extends to more than 30 countries. EPRI's principal offices and laboratories are located in Palo Alto, Calif.; Charlotte, NC; Knoxville, Tenn.; and Lenox, Mass.

Contact: Clay C. Perry
Senior Media Relations Manager
202-293-6184
clperry@epri.com