SMALL ASTEROID NARROWLY MISSED EARTH IN 2011, HUGE ONE TO MISS TODAY (Updated 12/12/2012)
2011 trajectory math was right, what about the 2012 math?
FIGURE 1 Above: Matrix about Asteroid 2005 YU55.
FIGURE 2 below: Barry and David Roffman at Meteor Crater in 2006.
TOUTATIS DIAMETER 3 MILES, DENSITY 2,100 KG/M3, impact speed 11 m/s | EJECTA AT 1000 KM | EJECTA AT 1000 MILES | TSUNAMI AT 1000 KM and 1000 Miles (IMPACT DEPTH OF WATER 5,000 FEET) | PRESSURE AT 1000 KM | PRESSURE AT 1000 MILES | RICHTER SCALE AT 1000 KM and miles | FINAL CRATER WIDTH |
ANGLE OF IMPACT 45 DEGREES Sedimentary rock | 8.24 minutes after impact, 4.38 mm | 11 minutes after impact, 1.605mm | n/a | 50.5 minutes after impact, .0117 bars, 81 dB, Wind 58.7 mph | 29.8 mph, .058 bars, 75 Db, 1.36 hours after impact
| 8.8 at 1000 km, 3.33 minutes after impact | 25.3 miles |
ANGLE OF IMPACT 90 DEGREES in sedimentary rock | 8.24 minutes after impact, 6.96 mm | 11 minutes after impact, 1.67 mm | n/a | 50.5 minutes after impact, 58.7 mph, 81 Db | Wind 29.8 mph, 75 Db (loud as traffic), overpressure .058 bars | 8.8 at 1000 km, 3.33 minutes after impact | 28.8 MILES |
Hits crystalline rock @ 90 degrees | 6.13 mm 8.24 minutes | Does not arrive | n/a | 50.5 minutes, after impact, 58.7 mph, 81 Db | 8.8 at 1000 km, 5.37 minutes after impact | 8.8 at 1000 km, 3.33 minutes after impact | 27.8 miles |
HITS WATER |
| 1.06 mm at 11 minutes | For 1000 km 2.28 hours, height 118 to 237 feet; for 1000 miles 3.67 hours, height 74 to 147 feet |
| 29.8 mph, .058 bars, 75 Db, 1.36 hours after impact
| 8.7 for 1000 km, arrives in 3.33 minutes, 8.7 at 1000 miles in 5.37 minutes | 25.5 miles |
HITS 5000 FT DEPTH WATER
| Tsunami arrives 22 minutes after impact, height 736 to 1,470 feet; eject arrives 3.07 minutes after impact, average size of ejecta 1.06 meters (3.49 feet). Seismic effects 8.7 magnitude earthquake 32.2 seconds after impact. Air blast in 8.13 minutes, may cause ear pain at 112 dB, MAXIMUM WIND VELOCITY 932 MILES PER HOUR. BOTTOM LINE – IF YOU’RE 100 MILES OUT, YOU’RE GONNA DIE. |
We can probably safely say that unless China, North Korea, the U.S., or a UFO does something to deflect it, Toutatis isn't likely to hit us on December 21, 2012 when the Mayan calendar ends (or for the next 600 years). However as Figure 4 below shows, the asteroid is encoded with Obama.
FIGURE 3 - PATH OF TOUTATIS AS IT MISSES THE EARTH ON DECEMBER 12, 2012
FIGURE 4 below: A somewhat surprising match between TOUTATIS and FROM OBAMA at the same skip.
FIGURE 6 - Image of Toutatis taken just before closest point of approach in 2012.
LAST YEAR'S CALCULATED THREAT FOR THE ASTEROID 2005 YU55.
I asked my son, David A. Roffman (then a senior majoring in Space-Physics at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University in Daytona Beach, FL; now a PhD student at the University of Florida), to calculate how large an impact crater would be on Earth if/when Asteroid 2005 YU55 eventually hit the Earth. His answer was 4.4 km across (with his calculations included below for those into such math).
D = 2*ρm.11*ρp-1/3*gp-.22*R.13*Ek.22*sin1/3θ
This formula is derived from empirical results [Planetary Sciences Imke de Pater and Jack J. Lissauer second edition page 180]. It gives the diameter of the impact crater.
ρm is the planet density = 3500 kg/m3
ρp is the asteroid density = 2080 kg/m3 (assumed to be this-stone with some gaps)
gp is the surface gravity = 9.81 m/s2
R is the radius of the asteroid (assumed to be spherical) = 200 m
Ek is the kinetic energy of the impactor (2*π*R3*ρm*v2/3) = 3.485*1018 J
v is the impactor velocity = 10000 m/s (typical impactor speed is assumed)
θ is the impact angle = 90o (assumed to give maximum crater diameter)
The rule of ten (the diameter impact crater is about 10 times greater than the diameter of the impactor indicates the result should be about 4 km).
Answer using formula: 4.4 km
IMPACT CALCULATOR FROM PURDUE UNIVERSITY. Purdue offers an on-line calculator to check on the effects of an asteroid impact. We will first look at it for the 2011 near miss, then return and look at Toutatis which is far more impressive. Using the density of 2080 kg/m3 and 400 meter diameter (200 m radius) offered above by my son, it shows the following results for an impact crater for 2005 YU55:
Crater shape is normal in spite of atmospheric crushing; fragments are not significantly dispersed.
Transient Crater Diameter: 3.7 km (= 2.3 miles)
Transient Crater Depth: 1.31 km (= 0.813 miles)
Final Crater Diameter: 4.41 km (= 2.74 miles)
Final Crater Depth: 463 meters (= 1520 feet)
The crater formed is a complex crater.
Using a angle of impact of about 45 degrees and a velocity of 11 km/s, the final crater size was close to my son’s calculation. At 20 miles from the impact, the air blast will have the following results:
Arrival time: Approximately 1.63 minutes after impact.
Peak Overpressure: 57600 Pa = 0.576 bars = 8.18 psi
Max wind velocity: 111 m/s = 249 mph
Sound Intensity: 95 dB (May cause ear pain)
Damage Description:
Multistory wall-bearing buildings will collapse.
Wood frame buildings will almost completely collapse.
Glass windows will shatter.
~90 percent of trees blown down; remainder stripped of branches and leaves.
For a comparison, Meteor Crater near Winslow, Arizona has a diameter of only 1.186 km. So the threat from this asteroid was to produce a crater 3.7 times wider.